Why Democrats have a path to victory in one of many GOP’s most gerrymandered legislatures

Again in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 48-47 statewide and took 119 of the 203 districts. Two years later, although, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey was reelected 56-43 towards Republican Lou Barletta and carried all 83 of the Clinton seats and a further 36. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who won 58-41 against Republican Scott Wagner in 2018, took a complete of 132 Home districts, together with every of the Clinton/Casey constituencies.

There are six Home Republicans in Clinton/Casey/Wolf districts. A further 25 Republicans characterize Trump/Casey/Wolf seats, whereas 10 extra maintain Trump/Barletta/Wagner districts. Altogether, there are 41 Republicans in seats that backed no less than Wolf, which might give Democrats loads of targets in a powerful 12 months.

On the opposite facet, 10 Democrats serve in Trump/Casey/Wolf seats. One other three maintain Trump/Barletta/Wolf constituencies, whereas two are in Trump/Barletta/Wagner districts.

We’ll flip now to the Senate, the place half of the 50 seats are up in presidential cycles and the remaining are on the poll in midterm years. The Republicans have held the chamber because the 1994 elections, they usually acquired some very welcome information final 12 months when state Sen. John Yudichak introduced that he was leaving the Democratic Celebration and would instead caucus with the GOP as an independent.

The GOP coalition now holds 29 seats whereas Democrats management the remaining 21. If Staff Blue can web 4 districts this fall, then Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman would be capable to break ties in favor of his celebration.

Clinton won 23 seats in 2016, whereas Casey and Wolf carried 31 and 34, respectively. Identical to within the Home, Casey received all of the Clinton districts whereas Wolf in flip took all of Casey’s seats.

Of the 25 seats that will likely be on the November poll, 15 are held by Republicans and the remaining 10 are in Democrat fingers. (Yudichak isn’t up once more till 2022.) Two of those Republicans maintain Clinton/Casey/Wolf seats, one other two are in Trump/Casey/Wolf districts, whereas a further pair characterize Trump/Barletta/Wolf constituencies.

Two Democrats, in the meantime, are defending Trump/Casey/Wolf seats this fall whereas the celebration’s different eight seats every backed Clinton, Casey, and Wolf. One in every of that pair of Democrats is Senate Minority Chief Jay Costa, who faces no GOP opposition. The opposite is state Sen. Pam Iovino, who flipped her seat 52-48 in a competitive special election that occurred final 12 months.

Lastly, we’ll take a fast take a look at the 2018 gubernatorial and Senate elections for the state’s 18 congressional districts. Casey took Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s 1st District and Republican Rep. Scott Perry’s 10th District, that are each main Democratic targets this fall, in addition to the 9 Democratic-held seats. Wolf received all these plus Republican Rep. Mike Kelly’s 16th District, which to this point hasn’t attracted an excessive amount of nationwide consideration.

P.S. Yow will discover our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we’ll be updating as we add new states. Moreover, you will discover all our knowledge from 2018 and past cycles here.